I'm asking if Cycle 24 will push high frequency (HF) innovation through the next ten years? Space Weather is tracking the number of spotless days and initial data continues extending a bullish uptick. I'm facing the reality that Cycle 24 is a bear and a game changer.
The team at NASA suggested a deep solar minimum however the article dated 1 April 2009 leaves wiggle room. Prank or not, something profound is happening, and we stand to gain from this experience. NASA reported 78 spotless days out of 90 suggesting an overall rate of 87% spotless since the beginning of the year. This is a first in over one hundred years.
In contrast, Amateur Radio manufacturers purchased sizable front cover advertisements associating a bullish Cycle 24 with an uptick in HF activity while others relied on a swarm like return of operators once 24 gets underway. NASA, on the other hand, challenged the current paradigm asking, "Is it supposed to be this quiet?"
2008 Benchmarks.
- A 50-year low in solar wind pressures.
- A 12-year low in solar "irradiance".
- A 55-year low in solar radio emissions.
A tidbit of science regarding solar winds for example such wind helps keep galactic cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. In contrast, weakened solar wind suggests fewer geomagnetic storms and auroras, good news for extreme northern latitude RadioSport operators. Perhaps what will change is our understanding of the various HF layers of propagation and how each interact during a solar minima.
The impact of a bearish 24 may benefit low-power, low-profile operators at HF frequencies however dismay those operating in the very high frequency (VHF) regions and above who rely on aurora driven propagation.
Will Amateur Radio manufacturers respond in kind as weak signal operating pushes itself to the forefront of activity? I'm hedging that digital modes less dependent on high power will surge in the coming months. Likewise, wire antennas return as system of preferred choice, because of simplicity of construction. Additionally, bands thought to be nearly extinct at a minima like 10m, 12m, 15m, and 18m present great discovery opportunities for low-power operation.
"Work the world on 10m with a wet noodle."
Well, maybe not a wet noodle, but a simple wire antenna and a few watts just might surprise Amateur Radio operators during the minima. What effect will a stable geomagnetic field produce at high frequency over a period of months?
Cycle 24 maybe a bear but it presents great opportunity to gain a little more understanding about propagation at a minima. And Amateur Radio is part of that discovery process.
73 from the shackadelic.
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